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Libros de trading

Acabo de terminarme un libro sobre trading. De hecho ni tan siquiera me lo leído propiamente, puesto que ya antes de llegar a la mitad me sorprendía a mi mismo saltándome algún párrafo que otro, que pronto empezaron a ser páginas y al final incluso capítulos enteros.

Siempre que me acerco a uno de estos libros me pregunto lo que pasa por la cabeza del autor para escribirlo, y llego a la conclusión de que es lo mismo que pasa por la mía cuando tengo una idea: “¿Cómo puedo ganar dinero con esto?” Pues parece que esta gente piensa que para sacar dinero a su idea lo mejor es intentar convencer a otros de que esa idea es buena para ellos, tan buena que deberían pagar por conocerla. Suena raro, ¿no? La única razón para hacer algo así es que crean que la idea va a darles más beneficios siendo vendida que puesta en práctica, así que no puede ser tan buena, después de todo.

Muchos de estos autores se llenan la boca demostrando como sus sistemas dan enormes porcentajes de ganancias en simulaciones históricas. Otra falacia. Un buen sistema en el pasado puede no serlo en el futuro debido, por ejemplo, a la extensión de su uso. El hecho de que un método haya servido para ganar mucho dinero en el pasado incrementa la probabilidad de que otra gente haya empezado a usarlo (o a utilizar otros similares), por lo que ya no funcionará igual de bien. Otras razones incluyen la llamada “paradoja de optimización (en inglés)“, el hecho de que el sistema sea tan complicado que carezca de valor predictivo o mismamente debido al azaroso azar.

Sea como sea, ya tengo una opinión formada: no pienso volver a pagar un duro para saber lo que esta gente cree que sabe.

2 comments to Libros de trading

  • Anonymous

    Capto la idea que intentas transmitir, pero tampoco se les puede meter a todos en el mismo saco. Como en todo, vamos.

  • I’ve read a lot about Forex, but I’ve never seen a proven pabolfrite forex strategy, despite the claims of some scam web sites.Playing Forex can appear alluring, but the majority of people who try it lose money. All you have to do is do a web search on the words Forex and lose to see this is the consensus.Forex is what we call a zero sum game. You are making a bet with someone else about whether a currency will rise or fall. For every winner there has to be a loser. If you are smarter than the average player, you may make money. If you are dumber than the average player, you are likely to lose money. Most of the people making the bets in Forex are highly trained professionals at banks and other institutions. You are unlikely to beat them at this game.Actually Forex is not quite a zero sum game. It’s a slightly negative sum game as the Forex broker takes a small percentage each time in the spread. It’s a small amount but over a hundred trades, it ends up being a considerable amount of money. So the average player is likely to lose money, and remember the average player is a highly trained professional and probably smarter than you.There is a lot of luck in Forex, and if you play it, you will have some periods of time where you make money. This is usually because you are having a lucky streak, not because you have suddenly become an expert Forex player. However, most people are unwilling to admit their success is due to luck. They become convinced they have a system that works, and lose a lot of money trying to refine it.Further complicating the problem is the large number of Forex scams on the internet. Most Forex websites are of questionable honesty. You will find many people on the Internet that claim they made a lot of money using Forex. They are usually liars trying to make money. They will say: Go to Forexcrap,com/q2347. The q2347 is a signal to the Forexcrap site that you are being referred to them by q2347. If they sell something to you, q2347 gets a kickback. These coded signals can be hidden by different methods in the link. Other people will refer you to their own private website or blog for the purpose of trying to get money off you. Also there are a good number of trolls out there that like to pretend they are successful forex traders just for the fun of it.I would recommend not trying to do Forex at all, unless you are a trained professional. It’s like playing poker with people better than you, with the house constantly taking a small percentage from the pot.

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